The Warriors Should Not Tear it Down Just Yet

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The Warriors 2023-2024 season came to a disappointing end when they lost to the Sacramento Kings 118-94 in the 9th and 10th place play-in game. Many are declaring the end of the Warriors’ dynasty, and are calling for major changes to the team. I believe many of the key pieces will stay as there is not much financial room for the Warriors to revamp their roster in a major way. There is reason for optimism however that the Warriors will be an improved team next season based primarily on the expected development of their younger players and the offloading of expensive contracts. They should at least be a less expensive team. The Warriors paid a record high $384 million this year on their team salary (inflated by luxury tax). Majority owner of the Golden State Warriors, Joe Lacob, said “The truth is, we need to be [below the tax line] two years out of the next four to get this repeater thing off our books -- it's just so prohibitive. Not to say we wouldn't do it if we had to.” *The repeater tax imposes a higher tax rate on teams that pay the luxury tax in at least three out of the four previous seasons.* Stephen Curry, one of the all-time great players in NBA history, is still on the roster and not going anywhere. The expectation therefore will still be to win the NBA title, and if going into the luxury tax significantly helps the team then I imagine the Warriors will pay the price.



 

Stephen Curry

 

"At the end of the day, I just want to win. I know that's fully possible. I know the summer is going to be a lot of conversations and trying to set up ourselves to win, whatever that means. I hope that's the outcome.” 
Curry emphasizes his desire to win at all costs in the post-game press conference after defeat to the Kings in the play-in game.

Steve KerrKerr has been the coach of the Warriors for about a decade and will be returning to coach the team in the 2024-2025 season, on the heels of signing a 2 year, $35 million contract extension that will take him through the 2025-2026 season.​

 

Klay Thompson​

 

Thompson struggled for several portions of the season, with perhaps his worst performance coming in the elimination game where he was 0 for 10 and had 0 points. Despite the overall down year, Thompson is still a very solid player; he put up 17.9 points per game this season and lead the league in free throw percentage. At this stage of his career, Thompson is not a max player, and I do not see any team offering him a max contract or anything close to it in free agency. I do think he can make more than the mid-level exception. Not including Thompson, Golden State is $2.7 million above the luxury tax for next season (this is including Chris Paul’s $30 million non-guaranteed team option). Because Golden State has Thomspon’s bird rights they are not restricted in how much money they can offer him but, as they are already in danger of exceeding the tax threshold, there isn’t much cap space to work with if they want to avoid financial penalty. They have until June 30 to extend Klay before he becomes a UFA. Here is a chart breaking down the implications of going into the luxury tax and how the costs of doing so multiply as a “repeater”.

 

Draymond Green

 

Green had an eventful season for the wrong reasons. He missed 17 games this season due to suspensions. The Warriors are a better team when Green is on the court. They were 33-22 with Green in the lineup this season as opposed to 13-14 without. If Green was consistently in the lineup and the Warriors built some continuity, they could have made the playoffs. On June 30, 2023 Draymond Green signed a four-year $100 million contract extension. He is expected to be back with this team next season anchoring the team’s defence and facilitating much of the Warriors’ offence.
 Chris Paul
 11 Warriors’ players are on the payroll for next season including Chris Paul who has a $30 million non-guaranteed team option. The Warriors will likely decline this team option but this would not rule out the possibility of Chris Paul returning for less money. Chris Paul came off the bench for the first time in his career this season and would likely be the Warriors backup point guard if he returns next season. Chris Paul has said that he is not retiring and should garner some fair interest from teams in free agency.

 

Andrew Wiggins


 

Wiggins is still owed nearly $85 million over the next 3 seasons. His play this season was poor and he performed well below the value of his contract. If the Warriors can find a team to take his contract this could open up different avenues for the team to explore in terms of roster re-construction. The warriors would likely have to include other pieces and sacrifice quality in return for some roster flexibility. If Wiggins returns, the Warriors hope he can return to being a quality 2-way player and a consistent contributor.


 

Rising Talent


 

The Warriors have 4 key young players that are showing a lot of promise, and they are Jonathan Kuminga, Moses Moody, Brandin Podziemski, and Trayce Jackson-Davis. I can see Podziemski and/or Kuminga being acclimated into the starting lineup for the majority of next season depending on personnel. Jackson-Davis played very well as a rookie starter but I would like to see the Warriors target a stretch big to play alongside Green. Bottom Line The Warriors can be a good team. You know what Curry and Draymond will bring you, and the younger players will continue to develop and become productive NBA players on a nightly basis. If Thompson and Paul are back with the warriors next season they will be making less money than last season which potentially means the Warriors can improve their roster in other areas. The Warriors will try to avoid paying the luxury tax but, when you have Steph Curry on your team, you must make sacrifices to win.​

 

Published April 21, 2024.